What is a recession? Economists warn Trump tariffs could tip US into one in 2025
By : Sandhya
Following US President Donald Trump's extensive tariff policies, multinational corporations are voicing concerns about a possible "recession" in the US and around the world. While some of the new charges are set to go into effect on April 9, others did so on Saturday. China has responded retaliatorily to the action, raising fears of a worsening trade war that would impede global economic expansion.
Citing the mounting pressure on markets and investor confidence from tariffs, JP Morgan increased its forecast of a US and global recession from 40% to 60% last month. Forecasts from other significant financial institutions were also updated. Goldman Sachs already raised its assessment of the likelihood of a US recession from 20% to 35%, citing deteriorating economic fundamentals, while S&P Global raised its estimate from 25% to 30% to 35%.
A Bloomberg story claims that HSBC reiterated the worries, stating that while it thinks a large portion of this risk is already "priced in," the recession narrative is gaining traction. There is currently a 40% likelihood of a recession by year's end, according to its equities market indicator.